That's How The Ping Pong Ball Bounces

The NFL Draft, which I wrote about here, is a fantastic media and entertainment spectacle that seems to become a bigger event every year.  Although the NBA Draft is not nearly as large an event because it only consists of two rounds compared with the NFL's seven, it can still create some significant drama.  One of the reasons why the NBA Draft is so intriguing is due to the NBA Draft Lottery.  The first 14 picks in the NBA Draft belong to the teams that miss the playoffs each season.  The Lottery determines the order of these first 14 picks by selecting which teams will obtain the first 3 picks of the Draft, then the remaining 11 picks are assigned in reverse order of win-loss record.

NBA Lottery teams are at the mercy of the ping pong ball during
the NBA Draft Lottery every year.

The Minnesota Timberwolves had the best chance (25%) of obtaining the #1 pick (and could pick no lower than 4th) as a result of having the worst record in the NBA this year.  The Houston Rockets was the least likely team to score the highest pick with only a 0.5% probability of coming out on top.  The Utah Jazz and the Cleveland Cavaliers each have 2 Lottery picks this year - one pick being their own by not making the playoffs and the second pick that was obtained through another team via previous trades.  The Jazz had a combined probability of 8.2% to come out on top while the Cavaliers held a Timberwolf-like 22.8% chance of having their ping pong ball come out of the pot first.

The Houston Rockets were the only team discussed above that was not surprised by the way their ping pong balls bounced - they will pick 14 this year.  The Minnesota Timberwolves became the 16th team in the 18 years of the NBA Draft Lottery with the highest probability of obtaining the #1 pick to NOT win the lottery.  The Timberwolves also had a 21.5% chance of coming out second - and it did. The Cleveland Cavaliers surprisingly won the lottery with their pick from the Los Angeles Clippers, which came along with Baron Davis earlier this year, and only had a 2.8% chance of coming out first.  Apparently the Basketball Gods have compassion on Cavalier fans after all since LeBron James left them in 2010 for the Miami Heat.  The Jazz, meanwhile, cashed in their New Jersey Net pick that they received in the Deron Williams trade by finishing third, which they had a 9.4% chance of winning.

David Kahn and fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves are
not fans of ping pong or the NBA Draft Lottery today.

I'm sure Minnesota fans will agree with me today, but I don't feel like the NBA Draft Lottery is the best way to help those teams that need help the most.  David Kahn, the Minnesota Timberwolves' Director of Basketball Operations even insinuated that the NBA Draft is rigged in order to create storylines and headlines for the NBA.  Maybe I'm not a conspiracy theorist like Kahn who watched his #1 pick become a #2 pick right before his eyes, but the system is broken.  Sure, Minnesota had the best chance to win the #1 pick, but they still had a 75% chance to NOT have the #1 pick (Remember, 16 out of 18 teams have fallen to the same fate).  Sure, Minnesota would have picked no worse than #4 under the Lottery rules, but Minnesota will still be at the mercy of Cleveland this year in taking the player that may be best to improve their team.  One of the principal reasons for using the Lottery-style placement of the top 3 picks is to try to ensure that teams don't "tank" at the end of each season and try to "win" the worst record so they can obtain the #1 pick like what is alleged to happen from time to time in the NFL.  But let's be honest, Minnesota couldn't really help it last year.  They were bad and lost the most games because they need better players, but thanks to the Lottery, they will have to watch the player that may have helped them the most go to the Cavaliers.

Many will debate over the course of the next month who will be the #1 pick, who will draft the first international player, and of course, who will draft The Jimmer, but for now the ping pong balls have spoken...and the fans in at least Cleveland and Utah like what they have to say....just don't ask the Timberwolves how they feel about it.

NBA Playoff Predictions and Dunks

The NBA playoffs are down to the NBA version of the Final Four.  The Western Conference Finals kick off on Tuesday night with the Oklahoma City Thunder heading to Dallas to take on the Mavericks.  Remember the Mavericks?  They are the team that disarmed and disrobed the world champion Lakers while dismissing legendary coach Phil Jackson 8 whole days ago!  The Mavericks have not had 8 days off since October, so it will be interesting to see how they respond once they take the floor against the Thunder, who just finished a long and exciting 7-game series against the Memphis Grizzlies that included a triple-overtime thriller in Game 4.  Despite the layoff and my personal dislike for Dirk Nowitzki, I'll take the Mavericks in 5 games.

Russell Westbrook will try to lead his Oklahoma City Thunder
teammates over the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Finals.

The playoff seeds held serve in the Eastern Conference as the #1-seeded Chicago Bulls advanced to face the #2-seeded Miami Heat.  The Bulls got off to an impressive start last night who ran past the favored Heat, 103-82.  The Bulls outplayed and outhustled the Heat while outscoring the superstar-laden team by 21 in the second half (55-34).  (Is it just me or does seeing the Bulls as a championship contender make every Jazz fan a little queasy as we all remember the last time they were a contender...MJ ring a bell?)  The latest dominant performance by Chicago was evidenced by the Taj Gibson's highlight reel dunk early in the second quarter when he threw down a ridiculous two-hand dunk over Dwayne Wade, who to make matters worse committed a foul on the play.  Even Wade clapped when he saw the replay.  "That was a good one," Wade said.  "That's a great ratio for me.  First time I got dunked on all year.  I'll take my 90 (really, Dwayne?) to 1 on my blocks to dunked-on ratio.  I really got punked.  It was good."  However, I don't expect the Bulls to be a high-flying act throughout the series.  The Heat will make adjustments, play better defense against the Bulls role players than they did in Game 1 (Deng, Korver, etc.), and LeBron James and Dwayne Wade will match Chris Bosh's 30-point performance in Game 1 and play up to their guarantee of bringing an NBA championship to South Beach. The Heat will win it in 6.

The bleacherreport.com posted the Taj Gibson dunk for our viewing pleasure (unless you're a Dwayne Wade fan) as well as the "10 Greatest Playoff Dunks".  It's a list so stacked with great dunks that they needed to add a few dunks as honorable mention.  I personally would have voted for the Shawn Kemp dunks because he had TWO of them within mere moments of each other...enjoy!

I'm Glad I Didn't Sleep Through April

The NBA playoffs are usually void of drama and upsets because of the best-of-7 series from the first round through the NBA Finals.  Like I wrote about here and here, I have historically counted out teams like the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies from advancing in the playoffs because the best-of-7 series favors the more talented, deeper team which after an 82-game regular season tends to be the higher-seeded home team during the first couple of rounds of the playoffs.

Well, my inability and ineptitude in predicting basketball games marches on in 2011.  The Memphis Grizzlies outplayed, outhustled, and flat-out beat up the more experienced / older San Antonio Spurs.  Led by outstanding play by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol who were not intimidated by the likes of NBA-old-men Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess.  The Grizzlies dominated the play down low and are set up to do it again against Oklahoma City.  Memphis continued their winning ways in round 2 by stealing game 1 from the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder in Oklahoma City on Sunday.  The NBA playoffs have already been one of the more exciting playoffs in recent memory and the next three rounds are sure to be more of the same.  I am glad I decided to watch it and not sleep through it like I promised to do here.

The Grizzlies-Thunder second-round series started the same way for
the Grizzlies against a higher-seeded home team - with a win.  Marc
Gasol (33) has been a key factor to the Grizzlies' playoff run.

Apparently I wasn't the only one that decided to tune in for the exciting first round.  The first round games on ABC, ESPN and TNT were watched by an average of 4.15 million people, up from roughly 3.2 million people last year (Is it just me or does that still seem incredibly low?).  In fact, ESPN's first round ratings were the highest since it began televising the NBA playoffs in 2003.  The exciting second-round matchups are as follows:

Eastern Conference - Chicago vs. Atlanta, Miami vs. Boston
Western Conference - Oklahoma City vs. Memphis, Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas

Of course, the exciting playoff series and the high TV ratings can only mean that the NBA is due for a lockout just as it is at the height of its popularity - just like the NFL.  Let's hope the NBA players and owners can resolve their differences and avoid a work stoppage later this Summer.  Unfortunately, I see the NBA work stoppage being a bigger threat to the 2011-12 season than the NFL's.  But, as the Memphis Grizzlies know, 2011 is not exactly my year for predicting basketball - which could actually be a good thing in this case.

Wake Me Up In June

It's that time of year again.  No, I'm not talking about Spring, random April snow showers, Spring Break, or even Baseball.  That's right, it's time for the first round of the NBA playoffs!!!  In case you didn't catch my sarcasm in that first sentence, then please be sure to wake me up in late-May / early-June.  Okay, I am a HUGE basketball fan.  It is easily my favorite sport to watch, play, etc., but that is exactly why I hate the first (and even a lot of the second) round in the NBA playoffs.  Why, you ask?  First of all, the NBA allows more than half of its teams to get into the playoffs (16 out of 30), allowing below-average teams such as the 37-45 Indiana Pacers to play a couple of extra games in the first round every year.  The NBA then had the bright idea in 2003 to switch the first round playoff format from best-of-5 games to best-of-7 games in 2003, thus eliminating almost any possibility of a first round upset by a lower-seeded team.  A best-of-7 series guarantees one thing:  the better team usually wins.  Only once since 2003 has a #8 seed beat a #1 seed (Golden State over Dallas).

Will there be an upset in the NBA playoffs like
Morehead State over Louisville?  Not in a 7-game series.

An NBA best-of-7 series does exactly what the NBA wants it to do: it creates Conference Final and NBA Final matchups with the better teams and the better players.  Do you really think the NBA commissioner was sad to see Lebron James and Chris Bosh leave their smaller basketball-market NBA teams (Cleveland and Toronto, respectively) to join Dwayne Wade in one of the larger NBA markets (Miami) this year?  Did the league allow for the most uneven trade in NBA history to take place with Pau Gasol ending up with the Los Angeles Lakers (The Lakers have not missed the NBA Finals since Pau joined the Lakers in 2008)?  The lowest-rated, least-watched NBA Finals took place in 2007 between the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Even though two of the best players (Lebron James and Tim Duncan) were involved in the series, its ratings suffered from two of the smaller-market teams getting to the league's showcase event.  Is it any coincidence that the Pau Gasol trade took place the very next season?  I'm just sayin'...

NBA Commissioner David Stern would love
to see a Kobe-Lebron NBA Finals matchup.

The only advantage of the current format of the NBA playoffs is that there is rarely any argument which team is the best team in the league, unlike when Connecticut won the NCAA tournament this year like I wrote about here.  Meanwhile, the NCAA Tournament and the NFL playoff format create for much more exciting games because they are a "one-and-done" playoff system.  If even the "best" NFL or NCAA team has an off-night or makes an unusual amount of mistakes in a playoff game, then they may not have the advantage of letting the better talent or the better coaching between the two teams take over and avoid losing three more times.  Does an NBA team from Indiana (the Pacers) have the same chance to make the Finals as an NCAA team from Indiana (Butler)?  No way!  Will a small-market team like the Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to mimic the success of the much smaller-market team of the NFL (Green Bay Packers) in winning the championship this year?  Not unless they plan on signing Aaron Rodgers for the playoff run...or unless the NBA switches to a "one-and-done" playoff format.  As my brother-in-law put it a couple of weeks ago, there is a definite tradeoff between an exciting playoff format and the best team winning all the time.

Neither Kobe and Lebron has ever had the pressure
of a "one-and-done" playoff format having both skipped
to the NBA directly out of high school.

Don't get me wrong, I was one of the 4 people who actually watched the 2007 NBA Finals between the Cavaliers and the Spurs.  I love watching the NBA playoffs once we see matchups like the Lakers vs. Spurs or the Celtics vs. Heat, or what the NBA commissioner really wants to see this year the Lakers vs. the Heat (By the way, if want to see who the NBA wants to see in the NBA Finals, then just pay attention to which teams are scheduled to play on Christmas Day, which is probably the most-watched regular season games all year).  Unfortunately, the current playoff format elicits boring first and second rounds and a month-long wait for the best teams to be left standing.

Has anyone asked you if you have filled out your NBA bracket yet?  Me neither.

Quick Hits #2

The first version of Quick Hits may have been too "basketball-heavy", but so is my life during the month of March so here are only a couple more March Madness-related items followed by some other noteworthy sports headlines:


Big L-"East":  The Big East Conference set a record this year with 11 teams in its 16-team conference getting invited to the 68-team tournament.  The Big East snatched up 10 of the 37 "at-large" bids (27%), yet only 2 of the 11 teams remain in the tournament after 2 rounds of play - as many teams as the Big Ten, the Mountain West, and the City of Richmond, Virginia!

VCU is one of the two teams from
Richmond Virginia enjoying the "sweetness"
of the NCAA Tournament

How 'bout the City of Richmond?!:  2 of the 16 teams left in the NCAA tournament (VCU and Richmond) are from Richmond, Virginia.  The 11-seeded VCU Rams and the 12-seeded Richmond Spiders pulled off two consecutive upsets each this week.  Best known as the capital of the Confederacy during the Civil War, it is now know as the capital of the Cinderella team.

The NB-Who?:  By the way, has there even been a single NBA highlight on SportsCenter during the past week? Apparently during March Madness people pay attention to the NBA just about as much as the NBA players pay attention to playing defense before the playoffs.

Mario Lemieux may now be regretting his
demands for higher punishment for physical
play after Cook's suspension.

Irony on Ice:  Last month, the owner of the NHL's Pittsburgh Penguins, Mario Lemieux, lashed out at the NHL for what he perceived to be an insufficient amount of discipline and punishment following a brawl-filled game between his Penguins and the NY Islanders.  Last week, Lemieux proposed tougher suspensions for players that cross the line and inflict unnecessary roughness on other players during games - even suggesting that the teams be fined for the player's conduct.  This week, after elbowing an opponent in the head, one of Mario Lemieux's key players (Matt Cooke) was suspended for the remainder of the regular season and the first round of the playoffs.  Mario?  Any comment now?

Bonds on Trial:  The Barry Bonds perjury trial began on Monday in San Francisco.  You can read the riveting recap of Tuesday's proceedings of this century's "trial of the century" in California here.  Barry Bonds is on trial for perjury and obstruction of justice, charged with lying when he told a federal grand jury that he did not knowingly use performance-enhancing drugs...or eat his teammates' garlic fries.  It's also interesting to note the list of Bonds' perjury trial jurors in the ESPN link above, which has led to the key question that everyone in this perjury trial wants to have answered:  "Juror 21, how exactly did you manage to become a retired cashier without committing perjury yourself or slipping at least a $100 bill in your pocket at the end of every shift?!"

From the USA with Love

Amidst all the interest, intrigue, and media buzz this week surrounding BYU, Brandon Davies, the BYU Honor Code, etc. is an international phenomenon that has made its way all the way to Europe.  And no, I'm not talking about the "epic" and "radical" Charlie Sheen freak show.  I'm talking about the New Jersey Nets and the Toronto Raptors.  That's right, the 18-43 Nets and the 17-45 Raptors are two of the worst teams in the NBA, and in an effort to promote the game of basketball and the NBA, the Nets and the Raptors are playing the first regular season NBA games ever this weekend in London, England.  Really?  The NBA is trying to get England interested in the NBA with 2 Nets-Raptors games!?  Thanks for Harry Potter and the Aston Martin, England, we hope you enjoy this exciting matchup between two non-playoff teams.  Next summer, can you return the favor by sending us the West Bromwich Albion and the Wolverhampton Wanderers (both real English Premier League Soccer Teams) to give the US an exciting soccer game to watch?  In fact, can they play each other twice?  Pleeeease...

The Queen's reaction when she
found out the Nets-Raptors were
going to bring the NBA to England.

In all seriousness, it should come as no surprise that the Nets are one of the teams involved.  The Nets were bought by Russian businessman Mikhail Prokhorov last year.  Prokhorov has been trying to raise the Nets' international profile (I didn't know they had one to begin with) ever since he bought the team last year.  Prokhorov also helped close the deal for the Nets to move to Brooklyn in the Fall of 2012, including the construction of the new Barclays (a UK-based company) Center, which will be the home of the Nets for years to come.  Prokhorov also led the aggressive charge to obtain Carmelo Anthony prior to the NBA trade deadline.  Although he didn't end up with Anthony, the Nets were able to make a trade for Jazz All-Star point guard, Deron Williams, so they could have a superstar to build their team around for their upcoming relocation to Brooklyn and the World.  The "Nyets" already have a Russian-language website and a deal with a TV network in the country to broadcast games. "We're making big efforts to make the Nets Russia's home team," Christophe Charlier recently said.  Charlier is the chairman of the board of directors for the Nets and is also deputy CEO of the Mikhail Prokhorov-owned Onexim Group.  On the heels of all these efforts, Nets CEO Brett Yormark summed it up for the two people already following the team: "It's a good time to be a (or the) Nets fan."

Deron Williams will be a cornerstone to the
Nets' desire to have an international fan base.

Deron Williams, in fact, admitted this week that he had no idea his new team was going to play in London to play against the Raptors.  Oh well, I guess the NBA is going to have to improve its marketing of these events if these kind of games are going to take place in the future.  In fact, the NBA has come out and aggressively said that the Nets-Raptors series this weekend is the first of many global initiatives to come.  "Building the sport of basketball and the NBA internationally is a priority for the league as a whole, but we're thrilled that the Nets are so supportive of this."  NBA Europe senior vice president Sophie Goldschmidt said about the NBA-England experiment.  Apparently, the Raptors had to go because the flights must have been the cheapest from Canada.

At Least You're Not Baron Davis...

If you know me, you'd think that on a day when BYU decisively beats San Diego State on the road in the biggest regular season game in either school's basketball history that I would want to talk all about Jimmer Fredette and how BYU deserves to have a #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament (and not just because I'm a huge BYU fan).  I'll save that argument for another day, but today, I am glad that at least I'm not Baron Davis.

Baron is excited to go to Cleveland

Amidst all the "Melo"-drama, the surprise blockbuster trade of Deron Williams to the Nets, and the Celtics apparently not wanting to win NBA championships anymore, Baron Davis was traded from the lottery-bound, yet exciting, Los Angeles Clippers to the lowly, record-setting, Cleveland Cavaliers.  Now put yourself in Baron Davis' shoes: You were born in Los Angeles, an all-world high school player from Santa Monica, a Pac-10 Freshman of the Year at UCLA, you have a production company in LA with one of your best friends from high school, you're a member of the Screen Actors Guild (I wonder if they have a SAG chapter in Cleveland?), and in 2008 after 10 up-and-down years of playing for NBA teams in Charlotte, New Orleans, and Oakland, you sign a 5-year $65 million deal to come home and play for your hometown team so you can be close to family and run your production company.  Better yet, the Clippers drafted Blake Griffin, the best NBA rookie since LeBron James, to whom you have been throwing alley-oops all year on fast breaks, off backboards, and even out of the moon roof of a Kia during last week's Slam Dunk contest - in LA.

Now can you imagine the conversation that must have taken place on Wednesday night or Thursday morning between Baron and Clippers' management?

"Ummm, Baron?  You've been traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  You know, the 11-47 Cavs who just set the NBA record for the longest losing streak ever at 26 games and who are coached by the guy you publicly feuded with while you were with the Hornets.  Oh, and they also traded 2 of their best players for you and a first-round pick (really for the first-round pick), and you know they don't have LeBron anymore, right?"

But wait, the following was posted on Baron's Facebook page subsequent to the trade:

“I can’t wait to join my new team, bring good energy and help us win games. I’m ready to call The Q (Quicken Loans Arena) home and bring some excitement!!! See you soon Ohio! The Beard is on its way!"

Am I missing something here?!  I'll chalk up Baron's reaction to the "honeymoon" stage that comes when you look for a fresh start after playing for the under-performing Clippers, an owner who has publicly trashed you while sitting courtside at games, and realize that you're now going to play in front of the Cleveland fans and you remember how nice they have been to LeBron since he left (they burned his jersey in the streets!  Of course you're going to want to make nice before you go there).

However, the "honeymoon" will soon be over, Baron will get into arguments with his coach, and will most likely retire after this season (if he makes it that far) so he can get out of the 2 more years on his deal with the Cavs, and go back 2,000+ miles to Los Angeles so he can pursue his family and entertainment interests - which, come on, is the only reason someone would want to go play for the Clippers in the first place.