This One Is For the Dogs

For the first time in this year's NCAA tournament it appears that I actually got one right (two, actually).  The putrid bracket that I completed prior to the tournament currently sits in the 9.7 percentile on ESPN.com, which means that 90.3% of all men, children, and cheerleaders may actually know more about college basketball than I do, so please excuse me as I pat myself on the back and note that I correctly predicted the outcomes in the two Final Four games on Saturday.  In my previous post, I discussed the keys to each game as well as the predicted winner.  Butler was able to keep VCU from going crazy beyond the three-point line as they held the Rams to 8-22 from the line, and Connecticut was able to pull ahead of Kentucky led by Kemba Walker who scored 18 points and dished out 7 assists to squeak past the Wildcats 56-55.

Walker (15) and Mack (1) will lead their respective
teams in the championship game on Monday night.

The Butler Bulldogs and the Connecticut Huskies face off on Monday night to see who will be the Top Dog in the NCAA (sorry - I couldn't resist).  It will no doubt be a great game no matter who comes out on top.  Both teams have shown the ability to pull out close games throughout the entire tournament.  Neither team will let the other get too far ahead as both teams are talented and mentally-tough.  They have both shown an innate ability to prevent any opponent from making a run by being extremely tough on the defensive end as well as on the boards.

Butler will be celebrating one year
later than they hoped, but they will
get it done in 2011 against UConn.

Butler is the first team since the 2006-07 Florida Gators to appear in back-to-back championship games, and Connecticut is looking to win its third national championship (1999, 2004).  Butler fell to Duke 61-59 in the 2010 championship game as Gordon Heyward's half-court prayer rimmed off at the buzzer.  Many experts had expected the more talented and more experienced Duke team to run away from the Bulldogs and dominate the championship game; however, the Bulldogs, behind their whiz kid 33 year-old coach, Brad Stevens, kept pace with the Blue Devils and showed that they were not going to back down from the big-time, East Coast school.  They won't back down on Monday night, either.  The key to the game will be the rebounding battle. Both teams are willing to play strong defense, be opportunistic on offense, and rely on their big-time guards (Butler-Shelvin Mack, Connecticut-Kemba Walker).  It will all come down to who will be able to control the number of possessions and give their guards chances to make game-defining plays by controlling the glass.  The team with the most rebounds will be the team with the title.  I think Butler will get the most rebounds as well as the celebration they almost had last year, 62-61.

Final Four Fun

From the First Four to the Final Four, this NCAA tournament has been one of the most exciting and unpredictable tournaments in recent memory.  There have been upsets, blowouts, and buzzer-beaters, and VCU has been there all along the way.  All the fun begins to wind down as the Final Four kicks off Saturday night and ends on Monday night with the National Championship Game.  Only 2 brackets out of 5.9 million on ESPN.com correctly predicted the Final Four teams: VCU, Butler, Connecticut (UConn) and Kentucky.  The teams combined to have the highest average seed of Final Four teams in NCAA history: 6.5.  To put it into context, the average seed for all the Final Four teams throughout the years is 2.3 and there has only been one other Final Four with 0 #1 seeds.  But who will come out on top and play for a chance to cut down the nets on Monday?  Here you go:

VCU and Butler continue their Cinderella stories in the Final Four tonight.

VCU vs. Butler
This Cinderella story features the highest sum of seeds (11+8=19) in Final Four history.  Butler brings a coach and a host of players back to the Final Four after a National Championship game loss to Duke last year.  VCU comes with a coach and a team with no fear and sky-high confidence after becoming the first team win 5 straight games and go from the First Four to the Final Four - which is highly unlikely to ever be done again.  Both teams believe they can win and have demonstrated they can win close games in this tournament.  I think the key factor will be VCU's ability to shoot and make the three-point shot.  VCU has shot a Jimmer-like 895 threes as a team this year (almost 30 per game), and if they can shoot 30 against Butler and make at least 12 they will be playing for the National Championship on Monday night.  But I think that will be too difficult of a feat to accomplish against a tough and stingy Butler defense who took the three-point shot out of Florida's arsenal last week in their win against the Gators in the Elite Eight.  I like Butler here - 63-59.

Kemba Walker lifted UConn over Kentucky in November.

Kentucky vs. UConn
Cats versus Dogs.  The Wildcats versus the Huskies.  UConn beat Kentucky way back in November, 84-67, thanks to 29 points by Kemba Walker.  Two legendary, yet highly-controversial, coaches bring their teams and their most recent allegations (John Calipari / Jim Calhoun) into this Final Four.  Calipari, who according to NCAA records, has never technically coached in a Final Four after his 1996 UMass and 2008 Memphis teams both forfeited their games and Final Four appearances after recruiting and eligibility violations were later discovered by the NCAA.  However, his Kentucky team comes in hot after beating the #1 seed Ohio State Buckeyes and #2 seed North Carolina Tar Heels to win the East bracket.  After losing 5 players to the NBA draft in 2010, Kentucky will bring a fantastic point guard in Brandon Knight head-to-head with many experts' national player of the year, UConn's Kemba Walker.  Kentucky used tough defense and big plays down-low to run by the Buckeyes and the Tar Heels, but didn't have to deal with a do-everything player like Kemba Walker.  If Kemba can drive to the basket and create opportunities for his teammates, while still being a potent threat from outside, it will be a long night and a short stay in the Final Four for Kentucky.  If the Wildcats can contain Kemba by holding him to less than 15 points and 5 assists, then the Wildcats should be able to win (let's just hope it stays on the record books this time).  I'm still expecting the Calipari Curse to continue as the Huskies run away from Kentucky in Coach Calipari's "first" appearance in a Final Four - 77-63.

Check in on Monday morning to see the preview of the National Championship game...enjoy the games!